Commodity Value Chains

B. Cassava Transformation Plan

Driving Economic Development through Value Addition

 

Cassava Value Chains

High Quality Cassava Flour (HQCF)

  • Principal market – replacement of up to 35% wheat flour in bread; others – food industry, adhesive industry, dextrins.

 

Native and modified starches

  • We have two functional starch mills in Nigeria with a combined capacity of 20,000 tons (although they currently operate below capacity).
  • Demand is currently met by corn starch imports

 

Dried Chips

  • Principal market – to meet internal and external demand of cassava for individual use. China’s demand is expected to exceed 12 mill tons by 2015/16 due to their large ethanol production

 

Sweeteners – High Fructose Cassava Syrup (HFCS)

  • The total sugar requirement for soft drink bottlers and juice manufacturers in Nigeria is estimated at 200,000 tons of sugar p/a. A replacement of half of this by HFCS from cassava, would create a 100,000 ton demand.

 

Fuel Ethanol (E10)

  • Nigeria has adopted the policy of blending gasoline with 10% ethanol, the E-10 policy. This represents a potential one billion liter per year market of fuel ethanol and, assuming 50% of feedstock comes from cassava, a raw material requirement of 1.7 million tons of dried chips is required.

 

 

Demand and Supply Side Targets – High Quality Cassava Flour

 

HQCF Demand Side Targets

 

 

Fig 58: Annual Projected Demand for HQCF

 

  • We expect that demand for HQCF will be driven by a combination of increased demand for bread wheat flour, currently at 1.1 Million MT and a gradual increase in the amount of cassava flour blended in with wheat flour, moving from 5% in 2012 to 20% in 2015

 

HQCF Supply Side Targets

 

Fig 59: Annual Projected Supply of Tubers of HQCF

 

  • Due to the high water content of cassava, the conversion rate is approximately 25%
  • This low conservation rate leads to a very high volume of cassava required as input.

 

Demand and Supply Side Targets – Starch

 

Starch Demand Side Targets

 

 

Fig 60: Annual Projected Demand for starch

 

  • Nigeria already has very strong demand for starch that is being met primarily through importation of corn starch
  • Our expectation is to be self-sufficient in starch production by 2015

 

Starch Supply Side Targets

 

 

Fig 61: Annual Projected Supply of Tubers for starch

 

  • Due to the high water content of cassava, the conversion rate is approximately 20%
  • This low conversion rate leads to a very high volume of cassava required as input.

 

Demand and Supply Side Targets – Chips

 

Chips Demand Side Targets

 

 

Fig 62: Annual Projected Exports of Chips

 

  • The world market for Cassava chips is growing very fast at over 20% per annum.
  • This growth is driven by strong demand from China for ethanol production
  • Nigeria expects to tap into this growing demand while simultaneously developing local production capabilities to feed our own projected ethanol production.

 

Chips Supply Side Targets

 

 

Fig 63: Annual Projected Supply of Tubers For Chips

 

  • Due to the high water content of cassava, the conversion rate is approximately 25%.
  • This low conversion rate leads to a very high volume of cassava required as input.

 

 

Demand and Supply Side Targets – High Fructose Cassava Syrup (HFCS)

 

HFCS Demand Side Targets

 

 

Fig 64: Annual Projected Demand for HFCS

 

  • HFCS is targeted towards the soft drink and juice markets
  • The demand for HFCS assumes a 50% substitution of current sweeteners in the soft drink and juice markets.
  • Our expectation is to be able to meet 100% of projected demand by 2015.

 

 

HFCS Supply Side Targets

 

 

Fig 65: Annual Projected Supply of Tubers for HFCS

 

  • Due to the high water content of cassava, the conversion rate is approximately 20%
  • This low conversion rate leads to a very high volume of cassava required as input.

 

Demand and Supply Side Targets – Ethanol

 

Ethanol Demand Side Targets

 

 

Fig 66: Annual Projected Demand for Ethanol

 

  • Nigeria is a 1 Billion liter ethanol market.
  • For this potential to be harnessed, Nigeria will need to implement and enforce strong legislation coupled with the stimulation of local blending capabilities.
  • The team will need to work to stimulate significant production capabilities domestically.
  • Our expectation is to be self sufficient in ethanol production by 2015.

 

Ethanol Supply Side Targets

 

 

Fig 67: Annual Projected Supply of Tubers for Ethanol

 

  • Due to the high water content of cassava, the conversion rate is approximately 590 liters of Ethanol per MT of Cassava
  • This low conversion rate leads to a very high volume of cassava required as input.

 

Inputs Required to Achieve Cassava Production Targets

Land|Improved Seed|Fertilizer

 

Land

 

 

Fig 68: Annual land Cultivated

 

  • Despite Cassava’s relatively high yields of 25MT per Ha, significant volumes of land will be required to be brought into production.
  • Cassava can be grown across the country and specific areas that have a particular competitive advantage will be targeted.

 

Stems

 

 

Fig 69: Annual Required volume of improved stems

 

  • A significant volume of improved planting materials will be required to meet the needs of the high growth industry
  • We will work to develop strategies in partnership with R&D centers and the private sector to ensure availability of these improved planting materials.

 

Fertilizer

 

 

Fig 70: Annual Required Volume of Fertilizer

 

  • To attain best practice yields, Cassava requires high levels of fertilizer application, over 200kg per Ha

 

Cassava Job Creation Targets – 1.2 Million Jobs by 2012

Primary Production|Value Chain

 

Primary Production Jobs

 

 

Fig 71: Annual Projected Number of Jobs in Primary Production

 

  • Cassava has a relatively high labour content requirement of over 300 man days per Ha
  • This high requirement translates into almost a quarter million jobs in primary production alone

 

Value Chain Jobs

 

Fig 72: Annual Projected Number of Jobs in the Value Chain

 

  • The value chain is relatively labour intensive
  • Estimate that for every 1 job created in primary production, 1 job will be created within the value chain.
  • The value chain includes, input supply, service delivery, aggregation of output and processing.

 

 

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