Presidential Brief on Agricultural Transformation Agenda

September 9, 2011
 

WE WILL GROW NIGERIAN AGRICULTURE

Presentation made by the Honorable Minister of Agriculture to the Economic Management Team

Agricultural Transformation Agenda

Directly building on Mr. President’s Transformation Agenda

1.Historical Review

Our Historical Dominance in International Agricultural trade

Nigeria’s lost glory in the world trade of groundnuts

 

Our former glory in the global trade of groundnut – circa 1961

Fig 1: Share of world’s shelled groundnut exports in 1961

 

Nigeria’s dominance was eclipsed by China, USA, and Argentina

Fig 2: Nigeria’s export volumes compared to global export volumes for shelled groundnut, 1961-2008

 

Fig 3: Global market-share trend of shelled groundnut among key producers

 

  • Our competitors maintained their dominance due to strong marketing organizations that linked the farmers to markets and hence were able to meet new strict sanitary and phytosanitary requirements, particularly for Aflatoxin, a serious food toxin.
  • New Technologies, Aflasafe, have been developed in Nigeria by IITA to enable Nigeria meet the new strict sanitary and phytosanitary requirements.

 

Nigeria’s lost glory in the world trade of palm oil

 

Our former glory in the global trade of palm oil – Circa 1961

 

 

Fig 4: Share of world’s palm oil exports in 1961

 

Nigeria’s dominance was eclipsed by Indonesia and Malaysia

Fig 5: Nigeria’s export volumes compared to global export volumes 1961-2008

 

Fig 6: Global market-share trend of palm oil among key producers

 

  • While Nigeria declined rapidly, the industry grew even faster to over 33 Million metric tons.
  • Our competitors at the time – Indonesia and Malaysia, continued to invest in their agricultural sector, with a particular emphasis on R&D to develop higher yielding varieties and remain competitive.
  • This investment translated into countries such as Malaysia today controlling 40% of the world trade of Oil Palm products valued at over US$18 Billion

 

Nigeria’s stagnation in the world trade of cocoa

 

Our former glory in the global trade of cocoa – Circa 1961

 

 

Fig 7: Share of world’s cocoa exports in 1961

 
 

Nigeria’s dominance was eclipsed by Indonesia and Cote d’Ivoire

Fig 8: Nigeria’s export volumes 1961-2008

 

Fig 9: Cocoa Bean Price

 

Fig 10: Global market-share trend of cocoa among key producers

 

  • While Nigeria’s production stagnated, the industry grew to over 2.7 Million MT.
  • Our competitors maintained their dominance due to strong marketing organizations that linked the farmers to markets and provided support in the form of improved planting material, fertilizer, credit and rural infrastructure.
  • Our stagnation has meant we have been unable to benefit fully from rapidly rising global prices.

 

Nigeria’s lost glory in the world trade of cotton

 

Our former position in the global trade of cotton – Circa 1961

 

 

Fig 11:

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Share of the world’s cotton exports in 1961

 

Nigeria’s dominance was eclipsed by Mali and Burkina Faso

Fig 12: Nigeria’s export volumes compared to global export volumes 1961-2008

 

Fig 13: Global market share trend of cotton among key West African producers

 
 
  • In 1961, Nigeria was the major West African cotton exporter, however, its prominence has been eclipsed by Mali and Burkina Faso.
  • Our competitors maintained their dominance due to strong marketing organizations, that linked the farmers to markets and provided support in the form of improved planting materials and fertilizer and the ability to meet quality standards.

 

Nigeria lost a US$10 Billion (1.6 Trillion Naira) annual export opportunity from four agricultural commodities alone

 

 

Fig 14: Potential annual export revenues assuming Nigeria maintained its 1961 market share

 

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